At the end of last month South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee released its second 2026-27 winter crop production estimates. The headlines reported that South Africa’s 2026-27 winter crop is estimated at 2.67 million tonnes, up 2% year on year. This figure comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines.

But if we set aside all other crops, which are up notably from the 2025-26 season because of increased area planted, the picture for wheat is worrying. South Africa’s 2026-27 winter wheat harvest is estimated at 1.81 million tonnes, down 5% year-on-year. This is the lowest harvest in eight years.

The decline in area planted, combined with the prospect of poor yields due to dryness in parts of the Western Cape over the past few months, is a major factor behind the expected lower harvest.

Consequently, South Africa will likely increase wheat imports to around 2.0 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins this month, October 2026, and runs through September 2027, up from 1.9 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year.

Indeed, these domestic wheat production figures may still change as the season continues and the weather conditions change. After all, we are still in the second round of production estimates, and eight more estimates are to follow.

Still, based on what we have observed on the ground and insights from farmers, we are more convinced that the 2026-27 season will remain challenging for wheat, and South Africa’s import requirements will rise as the country needs to supplement domestic wheat needs.

Net importer

But wheat imports are not new. South Africa is generally a net importer of wheat. In brief, South Africa began importing more than a million tonnes of wheat since the 2003-04 marketing year.

Before that, wheat imports averaged 458 518 tonnes between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge from 2003-04 resulted from increased consumption and a decline in domestic area plantings.

From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained, among other things, by the profitability challenges farmers have faced since then, particularly in the Free State, amid non-conducive climatic conditions and deeper integration into global wheat markets. Before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and commodity boards played a major role in setting prices, including wheat prices. This provided some cushion for the wheat industry and other commodities.

Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. As a result, Free State production areas came under financial strain, leading farmers to switch from wheat to other profitable crops.

Deregulation

Of course, not all farmers came under strain; in fact, on average, the South African farming sector has thrived since the deregulation of the agricultural markets. Today, the agricultural sector is more than double what it was in 1994, and we have access to a range of export markets. In 2015, South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record $15.1 billion (up 10% year on year). This year, the export activity has continued on solid footing.

Back to the matter of wheat., oOther provinces of South Africa do not have large areas with climatic conditions conducive to high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few major wheat-producing provinces: the Western Cape, accounting for two-thirds of plantings as a winter rainfall area, and, mainly under irrigation, the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.

A significant development in South Africa's wheat farming has been improved productivity. In 1997-98, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. Yields were 3.8 tonnes per hectare in the 2024-25 production season. In the current 2026-27 season, the yields are slightly poorer because of the harsh climatic conditions, at 3.7 tonnes per hectare.

In essence, one must view the evolution of the wheat industry historically to understand why South Africa is a net importer of wheat, yet a net exporter of many agricultural products.

In the 2026-27 season, South Africa clearly faces various challenges in domestic wheat production. These include drier weather conditions and higher input costs, among other challenges.

Fortunately, imports will not be a challenge. Global wheat supplies remain broadly solid. For example, in September 2026, the International Grains Council placed the 2026-27 global wheat production forecast at 820 million tonnes.

Looking at this figure year on year may be worrying, signalling a 3% drop from the 2025-26 season. But over the long term, a harvest of 820 million tonnes is well above the long-term level of about 790 million tonnes.

The only near-term challenge, and the major driver of price increases, is disruption to shipping infrastructure in Ukraine because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Therefore, this supply availability suggests that, if logistics disruptions ease in the coming months, the global wheat market may see some relief from recent price surges driven by uncertainty, not supply constraints per se. Under such an environment, importing countries such as South Africa would stand to benefit.

Wandile Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.